Wall Street Week Ahead: "Cliff" worries may drive tax selling

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Investors typically sell stocks to cut their losses at year end. But worries about the "fiscal cliff" - and the possibility of higher taxes in 2013 - may act as the greatest incentive to sell both winners and losers by December 31.

The $600 billion of automatic tax increases and spending cuts scheduled for the beginning of next year includes higher rates for capital gains, making tax-loss selling even more appealing than usual.

Tax-related selling may be behind the weaker trend in the shares of market leader Apple , analysts said. The stock is down 20 percent for the quarter, but it's still up nearly 32 percent for the year.

Apple dropped 8.9 percent in this past week alone. For a stock that gained more than 25 percent a year for four consecutive years, the embedded capital gains suddenly look like a selling opportunity if one's tax bill is going to jump sharply just because the calendar changes.

"Tax-loss selling is always a factor (but) tax-gains selling has been a factor this year," said Paul Mendelsohn, chief investment strategist at Windham Financial Services in Charlotte, Vermont.

"You have a lot of high-net-worth individuals in taxable accounts, and that could be what's affecting stocks like Apple. If you look at the stocks that people have their largest gains in, they seem to be under a little bit more pressure here than usual."

Of this year's top 20 performers in the S&P 1500 index, which includes large, small and mid-cap stocks, all but four have lost ground in the last five trading sessions.

The rush to avoid higher taxes on portfolio gains could cause additional weakness.

The S&P 500 ended the week up just 0.1 percent after another week of trading largely tied to fiscal cliff negotiation news, which has pushed the market in both directions.

A PAIN PILL FROM THE FED?

Next week's Federal Reserve meeting could offer some relief if policymakers announce further plans to help the lackluster U.S. economy. The Federal Open Market Committee will meet on Tuesday and Wednesday. The policy statement is expected at about 12:30 p.m. on Wednesday after the conclusion of the meeting - the Fed's last one for the year.

Friday's jobs report showing non-farm payrolls added 146,000 jobs in November eased worries that Superstorm Sandy had hit the labor market hard.

"After the FOMC meeting, I think it's going to be downhill from there as worries about the fiscal cliff really take center stage and prospects of a deal become less and less likely," said Mohannad Aama, managing director of Beam Capital Management LLC in New York.

"I think we are likely to see an escalation in profit-taking ahead of tax rates going up next year," he said.

MORE VOLUME AND VOLATILITY

Volume could increase as investors try to shift positions before year end, some analysts said.

While most of that would be in stocks, some of the extra trading volume could spill over into options, said J.J. Kinahan, TD Ameritrade's chief derivatives strategist.

Volatility could pick up as well, and some of that is already being seen in Apple's stock.

"The actual volatility in Apple has been very high while the market itself has been calm. I expect Apple's volatility to carry over into the market volatility," said Enis Taner, global macro editor at RiskReversal.com, an options trading firm in New York.

Shares of Apple, the largest U.S. company by market value, registered their worst week since May 2010. In another bearish sign, the stock's 50-day moving average fell to $599.52 - below its 200-day moving average at $601.38.

"There's a lot of tax-related selling happening now, and it will continue to happen. Apple is an example, even (though) there are other factors involved with Apple," Aama said.

While investors may be selling stocks to avoid higher taxes in 2013, companies may continue to announce special and accelerated dividend payments before year end. Among the latest, Expedia announced a special dividend of 52 cents a share to be paid on December 28.

To be sure, the big sell-off in stocks following the November 6 election was likely related to tax selling, making it hard to judge how much more is to come.

Bruce Zaro, chief technical strategist at Delta Global Asset Management in Boston, said there's a decent chance that the market could rally before year end.

"Even with little or spotty news that one would put in the positive bucket regarding the (cliff) negotiations, the market has basically hung in there, and I think it's hung in there in anticipation of something coming," he said.

(Wall St Week Ahead runs every Friday. Questions or comments on this column can be emailed to: caroline.valetkevitch(at)thomsonreuters.com)

(Reporting by Caroline Valetkevitch; Editing by Jan Paschal; Multimedia versions of Reuters Top News are now available for:; 3000 Xtra: visit Reuters Top News; BridgeStation: view story .134; For London stock market outlook please click on .L/O; Pan-European stock market outlook .EU/O; Tokyo stock market outlook .T/O; Wall St Week Ahead runs every Friday.)

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World Briefing | Africa: South Sudan: Journalist Killed

A South Sudanese online journalist was shot and killed late Wednesday outside his home in the capital, Juba, according to the Committee to Protect Journalists. The journalist, Diing Chan Awuol, who wrote for a number of online news outlets in South Sudan, had published articles critical of the government, its policy toward Sudan and its ties to Sudanese rebel groups. Other journalists said Mr. Chan “had been threatened several times in the past and had received anonymous phone calls warning him to stop writing,” the journalists’ organization said in a statement. Since South Sudan gained its independence last year, journalists have complained of harassment and some have been detained by the government.

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Crowdfunding websites clamor for clearer regulation

LONDON (Reuters) – A new breed of internet-based financiers are calling for action to end regulatory uncertainty they say is preventing them from getting money to the small and medium-sized businesses that need it.

The so-called crowdfunding sector raises cash from members of the public to fund lending and investment. Regulators, however, have proved resistant to pleas for adjustments to rules that are tailored to more traditional markets.

“Operators of these platforms find it difficult to launch and flourish because existing EU and UK regulation does not fit the new models,” operators within the sector said in an open letter to EU and UK policymakers on Friday.

The plea coincides with a summit to discuss proposals for regulating a market that has developed in reaction to reduced bank lending to small and medium-sized enterprises because of tougher capital rules and greater regulatory scrutiny.

A host of alternative financing models have cropped up online, many allowing individuals to lend to, or invest in, companies with sums from as little as 10 pounds ($ 16). Massolution, a research and advisory firm specializing in the sector, says that 1.2 billion euros ($ 1.6 billion) was raised globally from crowdfunding last year.

Though some crowdfunding websites have tried to fit their operations within the existing regulatory framework, most remain largely outside it.

Part of the problem in drawing up appropriate regulation is the wide range of activities involved. Some offer debt, some equity, while others seek donations for charity or funding for creative projects in return for some non-financial reward.

With little or no expected returns from the latter, the main regulatory focus would be on equity crowdfunding and peer-to-peer lending.

As well as making sure that individuals are aware of the inherent risk involved with putting money in start-ups, the industry wants to avoid the risk of scams by ensuring that platforms vet businesses adequately.

LOST IN THE CROWD

Britain’s Financial Services Authority (FSA) warned in August that inexperienced investors should be aware of the risks in crowdfunding websites. A few days later United States securities regulators put crowdfunding at the top of their annual investment scams list.

Views differ about how to tackle these risks without stifling an increasingly important source of funding, and the matter is complicated by the varying rules already in place in different countries across Europe.

Measures taken by Seedrs, the only crowdfunding website to have received FSA approval, include requiring investors to pass a test to show that they understand the risks.

“It is hard to come up with a whole securities regulation; sometimes it does have to be a bit incremental and adaptive,” Seedrs founder Jeff Lynn said. “There is no question at all this is going to be a space that will continue to move.”

Some would like the operation of such platforms to be a distinct regulated activity, but others argue for smaller steps, such as a cap on the sums that people can invest or lend.

The British government, keen to improve the flow of finance to small businesses to boost the sluggish economy, has set up a working group to look at all aspects of policy on such sites.

The FSA said that it considers authorization of crowdfunding schemes case by case. The European Commission, meanwhile, is considered as so far having had a largely observational role.

Though the introduction of a separate regulated activity could still be some way off, the co-founder of peer-to-peer site Zopa, Simon Deane-Johns, believes that increased engagement with governments and regulators shows that things are moving in the right direction.

“Over the next year or two it should become progressively easier to set up a platform,” he said, “possibly through a combination of the FSA understanding more readily where things fit within the current regime and balancing that with some self-regulation.”

(Editing by Alexander Smith and David Goodman)

Internet News Headlines – Yahoo! News

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Sofia Vergara Wears Lingerie on Set of Fading Gigolo

Sofia Vergara

12/07/2012 at 01:40 PM EST

Sofia Vergara on the set of Fading Gigolo

Cam Griffith CRI/Splash News Online

On the set of her new film with Sharon Stone, Fading Gigolo, curvaceous Sofia Vergara busts a move in black lace lingerie.

Vergara, the Modern Family star who turned 40 this year and was named PEOPLE.com's Sexiest TV Woman at the Emmys, proves her ample assets are age-defying as she plays a wealthy woman, bored with her marriage.

According to the U.K.'s Daily Mail, she engages in a three-way relationship with Stone's character, a dermatologist, and a male escort played by John Turturro. Playing cash-strapped bookstore owner-turned pimp to Turturro in the film is Woody Allen.

The comedy, which also stars Liev Schreiber, Vanessa Paradis and Jill Scott, is set for release in 2013.
– Andrea Billups

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Smokers celebrate as Wash. legalizes marijuana

SEATTLE (AP) — The crowds of happy people lighting joints under Seattle's Space Needle early Thursday morning with nary a police officer in sight bespoke the new reality: Marijuana is legal under Washington state law.

Hundreds gathered at Seattle Center for a New Year's Eve-style countdown to 12 a.m., when the legalization measure passed by voters last month took effect. When the clock struck, they cheered and sparked up in unison.

A few dozen people gathered on a sidewalk outside the north Seattle headquarters of the annual Hempfest celebration and did the same, offering joints to reporters and blowing smoke into television news cameras.

"I feel like a kid in a candy store!" shouted Hempfest volunteer Darby Hageman. "It's all becoming real now!"

Washington and Colorado became the first states to vote to decriminalize and regulate the possession of an ounce or less of marijuana by adults over 21. Both measures call for setting up state licensing schemes for pot growers, processors and retail stores. Colorado's law is set to take effect by Jan. 5.

Technically, Washington's new marijuana law still forbids smoking pot in public, which remains punishable by a fine, like drinking in public. But pot fans wanted a party, and Seattle police weren't about to write them any tickets.

In another sweeping change for Washington, Gov. Chris Gregoire on Wednesday signed into law a measure that legalizes same-sex marriage. The state joins several others that allow gay and lesbian couples to wed.

The mood was festive in Seattle as dozens of gay and lesbian couples got in line to pick up marriage licenses at the King County auditor's office early Thursday.

King County and Thurston County announced they would open their auditors' offices shortly after midnight Wednesday to accommodate those who wanted to be among the first to get their licenses.

Kelly Middleton and her partner Amanda Dollente got in line at 4 p.m. Wednesday.

Hours later, as the line grew, volunteers distributed roses and a group of men and women serenaded the waiting line to the tune of "Chapel of Love."

Because the state has a three-day waiting period, the earliest that weddings can take place is Sunday.

In dealing with marijuana, the Seattle Police Department told its 1,300 officers on Wednesday, just before legalization took hold, that until further notice they shall not issue citations for public marijuana use.

Officers will be advising people not to smoke in public, police spokesman Jonah Spangenthal-Lee wrote on the SPD Blotter. "The police department believes that, under state law, you may responsibly get baked, order some pizzas and enjoy a 'Lord of the Rings' marathon in the privacy of your own home, if you want to."

He offered a catchy new directive referring to the film "The Big Lebowski," popular with many marijuana fans: "The Dude abides, and says 'take it inside!'"

"This is a big day because all our lives we've been living under the iron curtain of prohibition," said Hempfest director Vivian McPeak. "The whole world sees that prohibition just took a body blow."

Washington's new law decriminalizes possession of up to an ounce for those over 21, but for now selling marijuana remains illegal. I-502 gives the state a year to come up with a system of state-licensed growers, processors and retail stores, with the marijuana taxed 25 percent at each stage. Analysts have estimated that a legal pot market could bring Washington hundreds of millions of dollars a year in new tax revenue for schools, health care and basic government functions.

But marijuana remains illegal under federal law. That means federal agents can still arrest people for it, and it's banned from federal properties, including military bases and national parks.

The Justice Department has not said whether it will sue to try to block the regulatory schemes in Washington and Colorado from taking effect.

"The department's responsibility to enforce the Controlled Substances Act remains unchanged," said a statement issued Wednesday by the Seattle U.S. attorney's office. "Neither states nor the executive branch can nullify a statute passed by Congress."

The legal question is whether the establishment of a regulated marijuana market would "frustrate the purpose" of the federal pot prohibition, and many constitutional law scholars say it very likely would.

That leaves the political question of whether the administration wants to try to block the regulatory system, even though it would remain legal to possess up to an ounce of marijuana.

Alison Holcomb is the drug policy director of the American Civil Liberties Union of Washington and served as the campaign manager for New Approach Washington, which led the legalization drive. She said the voters clearly showed they're done with marijuana prohibition.

"New Approach Washington sponsors and the ACLU look forward to working with state and federal officials and to ensure the law is fully and fairly implemented," she said.

___

Johnson can be reached at https://twitter.com/GeneAPseattle

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Solid jobs data spurs little buying, Apple falls again

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&P 500 eked out only a slight gain on Friday as weak consumer sentiment data offset enthusiasm from a better-than-expected jobs report, while the Nasdaq slipped after some investors resumed a sell-off of Apple shares.

Wall Street opened higher after the U.S. Labor Department said non-farm payrolls added 146,000 jobs in November. However, the gains faded, and selling increased after the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for early December fell to its lowest level since August.

Apple shares resumed a recent slide, falling 2.9 percent to $531.27. The stock of Apple, the largest U.S. company by market value, is down 10 percent this week. It has dropped 24 percent from its all-time intraday high of $705.07 reached in late September.

In Friday's session, Apple's 50-day moving average fell to $599.52 - below its 200-day moving average at $601.38 - and putting the stock on track for its worst week since May 2010.

"There are a number of contributing factors to the weakness today. One is the return to the negative slide in Apple. It's a pretty big proxy for tech in general, and the market overall," said Michael James, senior trader at Wedbush Morgan in Los Angeles.

In Friday's session, Apple's 50-day moving average fell to $599.52 - below its 200-day moving average at $601.38 - and putting the stock on track for its worst week since May 2010.

Apple's weakness drove the S&P information technology sector <.gspt> lower. The index fell 0.7 percent and was the weakest of the S&P 500's 10 major industry sectors on Friday.

The equity market has regained most of the ground it lost following President Barack Obama's re-election as markets turned their focus to the coming "fiscal cliff." Market response to the macroeconomic data remained muted as negotiations continued to command investor attention.

The conflicting reports "would have had more of a lasting effect in a normal environment, but in the current environment? No. There's total uncertainty with what's going to transpire here and abroad. Too many questions," said Warren West, principal at Greentree Brokerage Services in Philadelphia.

U.S. House Speaker John Boehner said that talks this week with President Barack Obama produced no progress, and he renewed his demand that the president provide a new offer to avert the series of tax increases and spending cuts that are likely to hurt economic demand in 2013.

Still, the S&P 500 is just 4.1 percent below the 2012 intraday high of 1,474.51 reached in mid-September.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.dji> rose 53.67 points, or 0.41 percent, to 13,127.71. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.spx> gained 1.80 points, or 0.13 percent, to 1,415.74. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.ixic> fell 15.55 points, or 0.52 percent, at 2,973.72.

Amarin Corp shares lost 18.5 percent to $9.74 after the biopharmaceutical company raised $100 million in financing to help it launch its heart drug, Vascepa, but disappointed investors, who had hoped for a sale or partnership.

CombiMatrix Corp shares soared 250.3 percent to $6.90 after the company said two studies published in a medical journal favored technology it uses for prenatal diagnosis of genetic abnormalities over traditional technologies.

Shares of Netflix Inc , which had fluctuated between positive and negative territory earlier in the session, turned higher once more by early afternoon. Netflix was up 0.6 percent at $86.66 following news that the Securities and Exchange Commission was considering taking action against the company and its Chief Executive Reed Hastings for violating public disclosure rules with a Facebook post.

(Additional reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak; Editing by Bernadette Baum and Jan Paschal)

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Bombers Strike Pakistani Military Base in South Waziristan

PESHAWAR, Pakistan — Suicide bombers in an explosives-laden car struck a Pakistani military base in the volatile South Waziristan tribal region on Wednesday, killing three soldiers, according to a senior security official in Peshawar.

The official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said the vehicle was spotted by guards in a security tower at the walled Javed Sultan Shaheed Camp, a few miles west of South Waziristan’s main town, Wana. He said the guards fired a rocket-propelled grenade at the vehicle, and it exploded before it reached the base gates.

The blast killed one of the soldiers inside the guard tower and a junior officer who died when the roof of a nearby building collapsed onto him, the official said. Four soldiers were wounded, and one later died of his injuries.

The camp, which is a few miles from the Afghan border, had been targeted before by militants. The sprawling camp includes military offices and housing for officers and soldiers.

It was the second suicide bombing in Wana since last Thursday, when a bomber on a motorcycle killed eight people and wounded 18 in an attack on Mullah Nazir, a militant commander who sends Taliban fighters into Afghanistan.

That bombing caused tension between the local Ahmadzai Wazir tribe and Mehsud tribesmen, who have been displaced from the more mountainous districts of South Waziristan by military operations in the area. The top leadership of the banned Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan comes from the Mehsud tribe.

Though no group claimed responsibility for last week’s bombing, the Ahmadzai Wazir tribe had given Mehsud tribesmen until Wednesday to leave the Wana area.

Hundreds of Mehsuds have been seen leaving Wana, according to a local reporter speaking on the condition of anonymity. The reporter said that mediation between the two tribes by religious leaders had failed and that Ahmadzai Wazirs were under pressure from the local authorities to evict Mehsuds.

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Prince Charles Is 'Thrilled' to Become a Grandfather

12/06/2012 at 01:45 PM EST

Prince Charles

Allpix/Splash News Online

Prince Charles's royal title can't compare to one he will earn next year – grandfather – now that Kate and his son Prince William are expecting their first child.

"I'm thrilled," he told reporters Thursday as he was boarding the HMS Belfast in London. "It's a very nice thought to become a grandfather in my old age, if I can say so."

Meanwhile, Charles says he is happy to see that Kate is recovering and out of the hospital.

"I'm very glad my daughter-in-law is getting better, thank goodness," he told reporters.

– Julia Haskins

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Celebrations planned as Wash. legalizes marijuana

SEATTLE (AP) — Legal marijuana possession becomes a reality under Washington state law on Thursday, and some people planned to celebrate the new law by breaking it.

Voters in Washington and Colorado last month made those the first states to decriminalize and regulate the recreational use of marijuana. Washington's law takes effect Thursday and allows adults to have up to an ounce of pot — but it bans public use of marijuana, which is punishable by a fine, just like drinking in public.

Nevertheless, some people planned to gather at 12:01 a.m. PST Thursday to smoke in public beneath Seattle's Space Needle. Others planned a midnight party outside the Seattle headquarters of Hempfest, the 21-year-old festival that attracts tens of thousands of pot fans every summer.

"This is a big day because all our lives we've been living under the iron curtain of prohibition," said Hempfest director Vivian McPeak. "The whole world sees that prohibition just took a body blow."

In another sweeping change for Washington, Gov. Chris Gregoire on Wednesday signed into law a measure that legalizes same-sex marriage. The state joins several others that allow gay and lesbian couples to wed.

That law also takes effect Thursday, when gay and lesbian couples can start picking up their wedding certificates and licenses at county auditors' offices. Those offices in King County, the state's largest and home to Seattle, and Thurston County, home to the state capital of Olympia, planned to open the earliest, at 12:01 a.m. Thursday, to start issuing marriage licenses. Because the state has a three-day waiting period, the earliest that weddings can take place is Sunday.

The Seattle Police Department provided this public marijuana use enforcement guidance to its officers via email Wednesday night: "Until further notice, officers shall not take any enforcement action — other than to issue a verbal warning — for a violation of Initiative 502."

Thanks to a 2003 law, marijuana enforcement remains the department's lowest priority. Even before I-502 passed on Nov. 6, police rarely busted people at Hempfest, despite widespread pot use, and the city attorney here doesn't prosecute people for having small amounts of marijuana.

Officers will be advising people to take their weed inside, police spokesman Jonah Spangenthal-Lee wrote on the SPD Blotter. "The police department believes that, under state law, you may responsibly get baked, order some pizzas and enjoy a 'Lord of the Rings' marathon in the privacy of your own home, if you want to."

Washington's new law decriminalizes possession of up to an ounce for those over 21, but for now selling marijuana remains illegal. I-502 gives the state a year to come up with a system of state-licensed growers, processors and retail stores, with the marijuana taxed 25 percent at each stage. Analysts have estimated that a legal pot market could bring Washington hundreds of millions of dollars a year in new tax revenue for schools, health care and basic government functions.

But marijuana remains illegal under federal law. That means federal agents can still arrest people for it, and it's banned from federal properties, including military bases and national parks.

The Justice Department has not said whether it will sue to try to block the regulatory schemes in Washington and Colorado from taking effect.

"The department's responsibility to enforce the Controlled Substances Act remains unchanged," said a statement issued Wednesday by the Seattle U.S. attorney's office. "Neither states nor the executive branch can nullify a statute passed by Congress" — a non-issue, since the measures passed in Washington and Colorado don't "nullify" federal law, which federal agents remain free to enforce.

The legal question is whether the establishment of a regulated marijuana market would "frustrate the purpose" of the federal pot prohibition, and many constitutional law scholars say it very likely would.

That leaves the political question of whether the administration wants to try to block the regulatory system, even though it would remain legal to possess up to an ounce of marijuana.

Colorado's measure, as far as decriminalizing possession goes, is set to take effect by Jan. 5. That state's regulatory scheme is due to be up and running by October 2013.

___(equals)

Johnson can be reached at https://twitter.com/GeneAPseattle

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Wall Street gains as Apple rebounds; fiscal talks eyed

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks drifted near the unchanged mark on Thursday as investors postponed big bets before the November employment report on Friday, but technology stocks rose on gains in Apple and Broadcom.

Monthly payroll numbers, to be released by the Labor Department, are expected to show a sharp slowdown in jobs growth because of superstorm Sandy.

Broadcom boosted other semiconductor companies a day after it forecast fourth-quarter revenue at the high end of its target range due to slightly better-than-expected sales in its mobile business. Shares rose 1.9 percent to $32.97.

The S&P technology index <.gspt> was the best performing of the 10 major S&P sectors, gaining 0.36 percent. The PHLX semiconductor index <.sox> rose 0.5 percent.

Apple was up 1.4 percent after losing as much as 3.7 percent at the open. The stock suffered its biggest one-day drop in four years on Wednesday due to concerns about higher capital gains taxes in 2013 and the company's market share in the tablet market.

Apple Inc's rank in China's smartphone market fell to No. 6 in the third quarter as it faces tougher competition from Chinese brands, research firm IDC said.

Broader moves were limited, however, as traders focused on the "fiscal cliff" debate. About three weeks remain before a series of tax increases and spending cuts would begin that could slow growth. Legislators are trying to come up with a deal to avoid some of the negative effects on the economy while still reducing the U.S. budget deficit.

While Republican leaders in the U.S. House of Representatives insist that raising tax rates on the rich is not negotiable, some GOP lawmakers now see it as inevitable to avoid the fiscal cliff.

"As we get close to the last two weeks, things will pick up," said Gordon Charlop, managing director at Rosenblatt Securities in New York. Congress and the White House will have final discussions near the end of the year about how to handle the "fiscal cliff," he said.

Without action from Congress, tax cuts on capital gains and dividends will expire at the end of 2012, which has contributed to selling certain stocks that have done extremely well in recent years, such as Apple.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.dji> slipped 7.93 points, or 0.06 percent, at 13,026.56. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.spx> fell 0.14 point, or 0.01 percent, at 1,409.14. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.ixic> gained 8.31 points, or 0.28 percent, at 2,982.00.

Sirius XM Radio shares rose 1.4 percent to $2.81 after its board approved a $2 billion stock repurchase and declared a special dividend, giving a big payout to its largest shareholder, Liberty Media , which rose 2.3 percent to $108.87.

Garmin shares rose 4.5 percent to $41.49 after Standard & Poor's said it would add the navigation device maker to the S&P 500 index. Garmin will replace R.R. Donnelley & Sons after the close of trading on December 11.

(Editing by Kenneth Barry)

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